Modelling the impacts of lockdown and isolation on the eradication of COVID-19

Joel N. Ndam


A model describing the dynamics of COVID-19 is formulated and examined. The model is meant to address the impacts of lockdown and social isolation as strategies for the eradication of the pandemic. Local stability analysis indicate that the equilibria are locally-asymptotically stable for R0<1 and R_0>1 for the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium respectively. Numerical simulations of the model equations show that lockdown is a more effective strategy in the eradication of the disease than social isolation. However, strict enforcement of both strategies is the most effective means that could end the disease within a shorter period of time.


COVID-19; isolation; lockdown; disease-free equilibrium; endemic equilibrium.

Full Text:



WHO (2020). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report-59, 19 March, 2020.

M. Peirlinck, K. Linka, F.S. Costabal and E. Kuhl (2020). Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States, Biomechanics and Modelling in Michanobiology.

M. Gotta, E. Bertuzzo, et al (2020). Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

O.A. Adegboye, A.I. Adekunle and E. Gayawan (2020). Early transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (2020) 3054.

doi: 10.3390/ijerph17093054

I. Frost, G. Osena, J. Craig, S. Hauck, E. Kalanxhi, O. Gatalo, Y. Yang, K. Tseng, E. Schueller, E. Klein and G. Lin (2020). COVID-19 in West Africa: National projections of exposed, contagious, symptomatic & severe cases, Publication of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy.

M. Mandal, S. Jana, S.K. Nandi, A. Khatua, S. Adak and T.K. Kar (2020). A model based on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and control, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 135 (2020) 109889.

C.N. Ngonghala, E. Iboi, S. Eikenberry, M. Scotch, C.R. MacIntyre, M.H. Bonds and A.B. Gumel (2020). Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus, Mathematical Biosciences, 325 (2020) 108364.

Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC)(2020). COVID-19 Situation Report 79, March 18, 2020.

K. Mizumoto, K. Kagaya, A. Zarebski and G. Chowell (2020). Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020, Euro Surveillance 2020, 25 (10).

R. Anguelov, J. Banasiak, C. Bright, J. Lubuma and R. Ouifki (2020). The big unknown: The asymptomatic spread of COVID-19, Biomath 9 (2020), 2005103.

J. Jiao, Z. Liu and S. Cai (2020). Dynamics of an SEIR model with infectivity in incubation period and homestead-isolation on the susceptible, Applied Mathematics Letters, 107 (2020) 106442.

T. Xu, C. Chen, Z. Zhu, M. Cui, C. Chen, H. Dai and Y. Xue (2020). Clinical features and dynamics of viral load in imported and non-imported patients with COVID-19, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 94 (2020), 68-71.


ISSN 1314-684X (print)
ISSN 1314-7218 (online)