COVID-19 changing the face of the world. Can sub-Sahara Africa cope?

Authors

  • Mandidayingeyi Hellen Machingauta Midlands State University. Botswana International University of Science and Technology.
  • Bwayla Lungu University of California Davis, Assistant Professor of teaching
  • Edward M Lungu Botswana International University of Science and Technology

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11145/j.biomath.2021.03.117

Abstract

We formulate a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus which incorporates adherence to disease prevention. The major results of this study are: first, we determined optimal infection coefficients such that high levels of coronavirus transmission are prevented. Secondly, we have found that there?  exists several optimal pairs of removal rates, from the general population of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectives respectively that can protect hospital bed capacity and flatten the hospital admission curve. Of the many optimal strategies, this study recommends the pair that yields the least number of coronavirus related deaths. The results for South Africa, which is better placed than the other sub-Sahara African countries, show that failure to address hygiene and adherence issues will preclude the existence of an optimal strategy and could result in a more severe epidemic than the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. Relaxing lockdown measures to allow individuals to attend to vital needs such as food replenishment increases household and community infection rates and the severity of the overall infection.

Author Biographies

Mandidayingeyi Hellen Machingauta, Midlands State University. Botswana International University of Science and Technology.

Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, PhD Mathematics student

Bwayla Lungu, University of California Davis, Assistant Professor of teaching

Department of Food Science

Edward M Lungu, Botswana International University of Science and Technology

Department of Mathematics and Statistical Sciences, Executive Dean Faculty of Sciences

Downloads

Published

2021-03-29

Issue

Section

Original Articles